Global CO2 emissions from Global Carbon Project (GCP) in 2025

The image shows the cumulated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by human activities from 1850 till 2025, and the thresholds of CO2 emissions corresponding to global temperature changes of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Every ton of CO2 emitted by human activities increases global temperature for millennia to come ( https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2923 ).

As every year, data from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) demonstrate that we are a little bit closer to the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds of global temperature increases mentioned in the Paris Agreement following COP21. This year in 2025, however, there is a new element: there is a greater than 17% probability that the 1.5 °C threshold will be exceeded by the end of the year, judging by the GCP's projections ( https://globalcarbonbudget.org/ ) and the revised 2025 emission ceilings by Forster et al. ( https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/ ).